Sports statistics: the false friend of the professional bettors?
The world of sports betting is evolving with sport. Most sports have become the playground for statisticians. Everything is controlled, evaluated, compared. This drift where some will say that this professionalization of sport was reserved for American sports: American football-basketball-baseball-ice hockey. Today, nothing is spared. You will tell me why is it so negative? Well because it changes the essence of collective sport into an addition of individuality and if it changes the sport on which you are betting, it will change your way of bet.
You will find sports statistics everywhere. This is the overall trend.
Today, the objective is to decontaminate from this sports game culture of the sport so that you can make sports statistics an ally without you becoming intellectually dependent. The danger is simply to become crazy and under the pretext of rationality fail in the greatest irrationality. Statistics are like the smartphone. You can see the world through, but you will miss the essentials.
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The errors of the bettor on statistics
The law of series or understand the probabilities.
This is the trap. However, one does not have the impression of seeing it everywhere as if it were the shadow of Murphy's law. This law has never been scientifically proven. And yet against any mathematical logic, sport specialists and those who pretend to be pros in sports betting, are only talking about. When I hear "" Team X has not won for 10 years in the Y stadium ". Should this fact be taken into account in your bets? What should I think? That a Voodoo bewitched team X, but only in this stadium? That the conjunction of the stars above my head also influences this poor team X? Be careful, we always try to rationalize, to find explanations in the unfathomable. From the top of their chairs, they will explain to us that it creates a psychological shock. Like a new coach arrives ... and if you listen to them, you will play on the series. You will play on something irrational and therefore make a battery or a face. The Olympique de Marseille has not won against the Girondins in Bordeaux since 1977. So, should we play Bordeaux? Well, in the end, there are more zero matches than victory of the Girondins de Bordeaux in the last 20 years for this meeting. Never forget that each match has an independent story. And do not listen to the advice without checking them!
For the most curious of you, here is an explanation
“[Editor's note] This was the case in 2005 with five crashes between August 2 and 23. Over 300 victims in about twenty days. Did this mean that there was a relaxation in the maintenance of the devices, in air traffic control, a fateful "CAP" in the aging of planes?
The previous ten years there have been around 20,000 takeoff per day and an accident for 500,000 flights. The probability of an accident is therefore 1 for 500,000. The probability that there are 5 crashes at the same time is therefore very close to 0 and therefore almost impossible. But the real question is what is the probability that 5 crashes occur over a period of 22 days anytime in the year. Let's move on to the somewhat complex calculations. The result is that the probability is 0.1, one in 10 "chance" to observe such a series in the year. This is not negligible and makes it possible to question chance. »Posted in Le Figaro from 09/01/2008
Chance exists and it is a mathematical fact. Complexity is that mathematically it is impossible to demonstrate. And yes, sports betting leads to everything and even to ask existential questions. Morality: it is better to believe that in the alleged law of series. The chance guaranteed that you are vigilant to find the right parameters and therefore Good statistics To optimize your chances of earnings. Reflection and study are the only laws to which you should devote yourself.
So let's go back to football because it is undoubtedly sport or statistics have done the most harm and are most poorly managed by bettors and observers. Take the big scam of assists. It is really the NBA statistics or video games that has nothing to do in football and even less in your bets. Besides, in USA, the bet is not available, but our Belgian, American and Quebecers friends, without forgetting the whole Francophonie can bet on it according to the respective laws ... The decisive passes were not even counting, there at 15 ? Why ? But because it doesn't make sense to football. If player X goes to Y which strikes 30 meters in the skylight, is it a decisive pass? Is the goals on a corner, is it a decisive pass? A pass in the surface or the player must make a rake to eliminate an opponent .... well it depends on your country. The opta completely excludes the concept of intention ”in its count. And individual stats, you will eat it all day. And if for you, this is the only way to estimate the importance of playing in the team, you go straight in the wall. We come to an essential thing: watch the matches. The truth is before your eyes. If you want to have an entertaining experience, but also completely creepy, just watch a match and then read the press review on this match. You will fall backwards. And the other experience is to study the statistics of a match and then watch it. Thus you will see that a 3 -shooting team was able to be less dangerous than his opponent who had 3 out of executives. That the possession stats make no sense.
The statistics, so everything is good to throw?
Absolutely not. Statistics disconnected from reality are to be avoided. The one that is the most important is those that give you a global idea of the form of a team. With rare exceptions ready, you have to look at a collective. Is he comfortable at home, is his defense porous, how does he play against the big stables. You can reinforce in the tactical aspect and tighten on the right path. They can be used to estimate the shape of a player if you like to bet on a goalscorer for example. Again, once, it is an indicator, not a law that is necessary for you. It is true that today, teams of billionaires monopolize all talents and are able to win solely on a flash of a Star against the little ones. In this case, the dimensions are not advantageous.
In conclusion: the statistics you have to follow are the one you do when you Consider the ribs. Most others are used by professionals and coaches, but are harmful to beginner bettors. I told you about Pro Tipsetrs. Statistics are a simple indicator for them, like a weather. However, the best weather you can have is looking at the sky and for the pros bettors, it is by watching the matches. And bookmakers then ? They are based on the statistics that pass through an algorithm itself corrected by the human hand. Bookmakers themselves do not blindly follow sports statistics.